Despite our warning in the book "The Revolution of the Blockboys" that "the future does not need to be predicted, it is necessary to strive for it," a year ago, my son Alex and I made some forecasts for 2017.
We also noted that "investments in private block houses will continue in 2017, but in the public space the pendulum will swing back. If the bitcoin community can unite its efforts and solve some basic management problems (like scaling), investors will again pay attention to the crypto currency - and with good reason. To date, bitcoin is still the largest, safe and liquid blockbuster. "
Passion of passion in 2017 was much lower than a year earlier. Business leaders realized that the most exciting innovations occur in the world of blockbuster and open source software, including bitcoin, ether, Cosmos, Tezos, Eos and other platforms. In the case of bitcoin, management was improved. A temporary solution to the fierce debate over scalability was one of the main factors that allowed the crypto currency to return to growth.
Forecast: "Bitcoin will overcome the $ 2000 mark (yes, you were not mistaken: one bitcoin would cost $ 2000). Ethereum will recover from the problems associated with the DAO, and will become the dominant platform for new applications and business models. "
What happened: We were ridiculed when we said that the price of bitcoin would triple. The most popular response on Twitter was: "Guys, you're crazy!".
Alas, only in the wild world of crypto-currencies you can predict an annual growth of 200% and make a mistake almost 10 times!
The ether fork was successful, and the platform actually became the basis for the ICO boom. As a result, thousands of new applications and ideas emerged, from distributed file storage and market prediction to kitten collecting.
Forecast: "A large central bank will conduct a successful test of the digital version of the classical currency, which will begin their wide distribution."
What happened: Some central banks have studied and tested the concept of digital currency, but none have decided to move to a new level and begin its large-scale output. In 2017, many central banks spoke out about bitcoin mania, some (Central Bank of India, France, Russia, China, New Zealand, etc.) called the crypto currency a speculative asset and a bubble.
In this case, we missed our analysis a little. Currently, the popularity of bitcoin is extremely high, but more importantly, what it marks itself: a new alternative to money issued by central banks.
Bitcoin is controlled not by a single organ, but by a combination of mathematics, consensus and thoughtful code. Central bank governors should have figured out what the most popular crypto currency is, and what global economic and social shifts will lead to its further development, rather than evaluating bitcoin only at a cost (this applies to investors as well).
Perhaps the most revealing was the speech by IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde. In February, she said that crypto-currencies could, among other things, improve financial stability, expand coverage and provide better functionality than traditional currencies, especially in less developed countries. She warned the central banks that ignoring them is extremely dangerous.
Forecast: "Large banks will begin to conduct significant volumes of OTC transactions in real time using distributed databases. The pioneers in this area will be JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Barclays and Santander. "
What happened: Despite the attacks of James Daimon's CEO on bitcoin, JPMorgan remains one of the most active and innovative banks in this field. In May, he signed an agreement with Zerocoin Electric Coin Company, a developer of Zcash, an anonymous and distributed crypto-exchange network, to expand its functionality on transactions in various financial assets, such as stocks and bonds. It is based on the revolutionary technology of zk-snarks.
JPMorgan also acted as one of the founders of the Enterprise Ethereum Alliance (currently it includes more than 100 large companies).
Recently, the Australian Stock Exchange announced the transfer of securities trading to the block infrastructure. It is being developed by Digital Asset company headed by Blyth Masters (former top manager of JPMorgan bank). It will probably be followed by others. James Daymon can only say one thing: he protests too much.
Forecast: "Companies in many industries will begin to develop strategies based on the blockbuster, hire specialists in this field and launch pilot projects. Advantages of the new technology will surely be used by insurance companies, healthcare providers, music labels, defense contractors, etc. "
What happened: That's exactly what happened! According to the Blockchain Research Institute, 70 projects are actively being developed in 10 industries.
Forecast: "There will be a new generation of start-ups in almost every industry, a new class of platforms and cross-platform systems. Innovations will shake the imagination. "
What happened: Done!
Forecast: "The crisis of the legitimacy of democracy (as shown by previous elections in the US) will accelerate the development and implementation of new electronic voting systems and platforms of accountable democracy using smart contracts."
What happened: As at the dawn of the Internet, governments are taking new trends very reluctantly. In some countries, experiments are conducted with the blockade, Dubai, Estonia and Georgia are already implementing large projects.
However, the overwhelming majority of politicians simply ignore the tremendous potential of new technology in creating revolutionary models of democracy based on transparency, accountability, public discussion and active citizenship through e-voting, smart votes and new tools for cooperation.
It is not surprising that confidence in governments continues to fall. In the United States, tax reform is carried out in the interests of the rich and large corporations. The crisis in the health system, the growth of violence with the use of weapons, attacks on environmental legislation and consumer rights, the imminent reduction of social services will lead to a fall in the standard of living of the vast majority of citizens.
Opposition candidates during the midterm elections in 2018 in the United States are required to demonstrate that the technology is able to cope with the influx of false news, to counter negative influence on the minds of voters and restore confidence in digital technologies.
